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Six Things I Think I Think for IaaS in 2013
Another year, another dollar - or something like that

Another year, another dollar… or something like that.  It’s time for an update on the 6 things I think I think for Infrastructure-as-a-Service (IaaS) in the coming year!

1. Hybrid Cloud Computing

2012 Perspective: Hybridization WAS key in 2011 and I’m doubling down in 2012.  If you’ve paid attention to the consolidation in the industry, you’d best do the same.  The big boys are snapping up anything that smells like bridging the enterprise to the multi-tenant host.  Look for this trend to intensify.

2013 Perspective: VMware buys DynamicOpsRed Hat buys ManageIQCisco buys Cloupia.  Consider the consolidation trend intensified.  The big question for 2013 is what the big boys have in mind for the cool technologies they’ve acquired in 2012. Whatever they might have in mind, the signal from the customer is clear.  Hybrid cloud computing is considered critically important to wide-scale adoption of cloud computing in general.  As I highlighted earlier this year, as big as the cloud computing market is becoming it still pales in comparison to private IT operations. Hybrid cloud computing is correctly viewed as a technology tap to this underlying market.

2. Cloud Federation & Interoperability

2012 Perspective: I’ve spoken with some pretty big names in the business and scale is an issue with their regional plays in the market.  The challenge in 2011 for cloud federation was the degree of difficulty associated with interoperability.  There was much progress on this front in 2011 but I think before broad based federation goes from concept to reality there needs to be more plumbing.  2012 will be the year real interoperability tracks are laid as a foundation for scalable cloud federation.

2013 Perspective: We as an industry had the opportunity to lay down tracks for real cloud federation and interoperability at this time last year.  What happened was rather disappointing.  Basically, industry titans from OpenStack, Amazon, Citrix, and others all postured. I remember sitting in the crowd at GigaOm Structure when the first official shots were fired on the subject of API standardization.  What could have been a wonderful opportunity to seize the moment and end vendor lock-in before it ever started in cloud computing, big vendors did what they do best.  They opened up their respective Kimonos and bragged about the size of their case studies.  What a (albeit entertaining) waste of time and opportunity.

Because we all anticipate the cloud market, particularly IaaS, growing at a serious CAGR in 2013 there will be growing customer pressure to allow the movement and billing transfer of workloads between independent cloud operators.  The opportunity for a new or existing company to emerge with a solution to this problem will become significant in the coming year.

3. Cloud Ecosystem Enablement

2012 Perspective: VMware unveiled its plans to stitch together Vcloud operators at its big VMworld shindig, but this wasn’t the only giant making big bets on the cloud ecosystem concept.  Equinix, one of the world’s largest data center operators, hatched is master plan for a ‘Marketplace’ of Platform Equinix Partners and Synnex, one of the most powerful IT Distributors in North America took a huge step with its Cloudsolv application and services portal.  Watch what these three companies do in 2012 to drive ecosystem growth.

2013 Perspective: Dell, HP, Cisco, Arrow, Avnet, Telefonica, Singtel…just to name a few. Billions in unstructured cloud business potential spanning distribution, hardware and telecoms just waiting to be harnessed.  The lure of these types of captive markets will push the envelope on cloud ecosystem enablement despite a big challenge encountered in 2012.  That big challenge was the relative learning curve incurred when you cross-pollinate large singularly focused business units.

4. Emerging Cloud Communities

2012 Update:  By the middle of the 2nd quarter I was beginning to worry about this prediction.  Was I going a bit too far out on a limb?  Then, bang!  VMware announces the big deal with the NYSE.  Wow.  Talk about going big or going home.  The NYSE community cloud has a lot of eyes on it.  A large number of other vertical deals are hanging in the balance, hoping to learn what not to do when details of the NYSE project become more public.  I think this VMware play will be a big success and in 2012, you will see many other big players follow suit.

2013 Perspective: Do you hear that sound?  No? I didn’t think so.  There’s no sound in a vacuum that is the lack of follow up from the big NYSE deal in 2011.  No big pharma cloud.  No big banking cloud.  No big offshore financial cloud.

How come?

Would-be community cloud enablers in 2012 figured out what they needed to figure out, which they are hoping to do in 2013.  What they need to figure out has nothing to do with the technology and everything to do with operational and contractual concerns.  The commonality of vertical market integration resolves certain compliance risks, but it doesn’t mean private IT operators are ready, suited or even capable of offering a legitimate outbound customer service. Ask any CFO or CEO of a publically traded company about the idea of taking on the liability risk created by a new service that, oh by the way, has nothing to do with existing strategy. At a minimum in 2013 look for new corporate structures to emerge in order to facilitate offering community clouds as a service.

5. Channelization

2012 Perspective: I am still a firm believer in the channel and I’m still banking my company’s future on it.  However, the Channel failed to capitalize on the cloud opportunity in 2011 the way I thought it would.  Don’t get me wrong, the needle definitely moved.  But the cloud operators and the broader channel are still separated by an expertise gulf that is limiting how much cloud money flows via the intermediary.  The investment from the IaaS providers continues to be there.  Find me one IaaS services or software provider that doesn’t showcase a channel program today.  2012 will see the gulf shrink and the channel heat up because Distribution will hit its stride and carry with it more evidence of the gold rush I saw last year.

2013 Perspective: The channel didn’t emerge as the boon of cloud computing adoption in 2012, but it continued to make significant progress.   Cloud Sherpas recently raised $40M on a bet that it had figured out the model to integrate cloud into the enterprise.  That’s not a small bet on the channel intermediary concept.  There were other big wins in the market too.

In 2013 you will see vendors get very serious about forcing channel intermediaries to declare their allegiance.  Programs are maturing and dollars are flowing inbound to support the intermediary to the customer.  This is a sure sign that we are on the cusp of growing the cloud wave in a big way.

6. IaaS Futures Market

2012 Perspective: Spot market concepts made progress in 2011 but as expected were not able to truly capture the imagination of the market.   However, the groundswell around commodity compute resource trading is gaining momentum.  And in 2012 look for general progress in this area with a few players coming out of the woodwork to surprise some.

2013 Perspective: Fact – trading compute contracts is going to happen.  If you trust nothing else I write, trust me on this.

As predicted, a few players came out of the woodwork on this.  Specifically, the Eurex and Zimory (via TSystems) in Europe announced that they had formed a partnership to build a trading platform in 2013.

What is unclear is exactly how this is going to happen.  How will the market be organized?  Look for clarity to emerge in 2013 on this subject.

Since last year’s 6.1 bonus prediction was such a hit (um, cloud brokerage, anyone?) I will keep with the new tradition.  Here’s my scoop:  Keep an eye on the fall of old empires.  The world economy is definitely not what it was two years ago, but neither are some of these tech titans of yesterday:

Dell

Dell stock chart

Microsoft

Microsoft stock chart

Oracle

Oracle stock chart

HP

HP stock chart

Cloud Computing – the agent of change – can mean rebirth or extinction for some of the biggest companies to dominate the tech landscape in the last 30 years.  Look for significant strategic moves by some of the giants as they posture for survival in the new era.

Have a great 2013!

The post 6 things I think I think for IaaS in 2013 appeared first on 6fusion.

Read the original blog entry...

About John Cowan
John Cowan is co-founder and CEO of 6fusion. John is credited as 6fusion's business model visionary, bridging concepts and services behind cloud computing to the IT Service channel. In 2008, he along with his 6fusion collaborators successfully launched the industry's first single unit of meausurement for x86 computing, known as the Workload Allocation Cube (WAC). John is a 12 year veteran of business and product development within the IT and Telecommunications sectors and a graduate of Queen's University at Kingston.

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Mobile, social, Big Data, and cloud have fundamentally changed the way we live. “Anytime, anywhere” access to data and information is no longer a luxury; it’s a requirement, in both our personal and professional lives. For IT organizations, this means pressure has never been greater to deliver meaningful services to the business and customers. New tools, technologies, and frameworks have evolved recently to help manage rapid shifts in the technology landscape, but they’re only as good as the underlying processes that exist within the organization. As lines of business change or add requiremen...
I’ve been thinking a bit about microservices (μServices) recently. My immediate reaction is to think: “Isn’t this just yet another new term for the same stuff, Web Services->SOA->APIs->Microservices?” Followed shortly by the thought, “well yes it is, but there are some important differences/distinguishing factors.” Microservices is an evolutionary paradigm born out of the need for simplicity (i.e., get away from the ESB) and alignment with agile (think DevOps) and scalable (think Containerization) development and deployment architectures. Martin Fowler and James Lewis defined nine core charac...

Let's just nip the conflation of these terms in the bud, shall we?

"MIcro" is big these days. Both microservices and microsegmentation are having and will continue to have an impact on data center architecture, but not necessarily for the same reasons. There's a growing trend in which folks - particularly those with a network background - conflate the two and use them to mean the same thing.

They are not.

One is about the application. The other, the network. There is a relationship, but it's a voluntary one. They are two very different things and we need to ...

The Big Data explosion in recent years has created a vast number of new technologies in the area of data processing, storage, and management. One of the biggest names to appear on the scene is Hadoop. In case you need a quick review, Hadoop is a Big Data storage system that takes in large amounts of data from servers and breaks it into smaller, manageable chunks. The technology is complex but at a high level the Hadoop ecosystem essentially takes a “divide and conquer” approach to processing Big Data instead of processing data in tables, as in a relational database like Oracle or MySQL.
There’s a lot of discussion around managing outages in production via the likes of DevOps principles and the corresponding software development lifecycles that does enable higher quality output from development, however, one cannot lay all blame for “bugs” and failures at the feet of those responsible for coding and development. As developers incorporate features and benefits of these paradigm shift, there is a learning curve and a point of not-knowing-what-is-not-known. Sometimes, the only way to learn is to actually put code into production and monitor its performance and actions.
The last decade was about virtual machines, but the next one is about containers. Containers enable a service to run on any host at any time. Traditional tools are starting to show cracks because they were not designed for this level of application portability. Now is the time to look at new ways to deploy and manage applications at scale. In his session at 16th Cloud Expo, Jake Moshenko, Product Manager at CoreOS, will examine how CoreOS + Quay.io fit into the development lifecycle from pushing git changes all the way through to running in production. Attendees will understand how different ...
Right off the bat, Newman advises that we should "think of microservices as a specific approach for SOA in the same way that XP or Scrum are specific approaches for Agile Software development". These analogies are very interesting because my expectation was that microservices is a pattern. So I might infer that microservices is a set of process techniques as opposed to an architectural approach. Yet in the book, Newman clearly includes some elements of concept model and architecture as well as process and organization.
How can you compare one technology or tool to its competitors? Usually, there is no objective comparison available. So how do you know which is better? Eclipse or IntelliJ IDEA? Java EE or Spring? C# or Java? All you can usually find is a holy war and biased comparisons on vendor sites. But luckily, sometimes, you can find a fair comparison. How does this come to be? By having it co-authored by the stakeholders. The binary repository comparison matrix is one of those rare resources. It is edited by JFrog, Sonatype and Archiva committers to provide you with an objective picture; every vendor a...
SAP is delivering break-through innovation combined with fantastic user experience powered by the market-leading in-memory technology, SAP HANA. In his General Session at 15th Cloud Expo, Thorsten Leiduck, VP ISVs & Digital Commerce, SAP, discussed how SAP and partners provide cloud and hybrid cloud solutions as well as real-time Big Data offerings that help companies of all sizes and industries run better. SAP launched an application challenge to award the most innovative SAP HANA and SAP HANA Cloud platforms applications. Out of many contenders, the best applications have been selected by m...
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Past SYS-CON Events
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Cloud Expo 2011 Allstar Conference Faculty

S.F.S.
Dell

Singer
NRO

Pereyra
Oracle

Ryan
OpSource

Butte
PwC

Leone
Oracle

Riley
AWS

Varia
AWS

Lye
Oracle

O'Connor
AppZero

Crandell
RightScale

Nucci
Dell Boomi

Hillier
CiRBA

Morrison
Layer 7 Tech

Robbins
NYT

Schwarz
Oracle

What The Enterprise IT World Says About Cloud Expo
 
"We had extremely positive feedback from both customers and prospects that attended the show and saw live demos of NaviSite's enterprise cloud based services."
  –William Toll
Sr. Director, Marketing & Strategic Alliances
Navisite
 


 
"More and better leads than ever expected! I have 4-6 follow ups personally."
  –Richard Wellner
Chief Scientist
Univa UD
 


 
"Good crowd, good questions. The event looked very successful."
  –Simon Crosby
CTO
Citrix Systems
 


 
"It's the largest cloud computing conference I've ever seen."
  –David Linthicum
CTO
Brick Group